Last year’s outlook for 2016 suggested that you keep your eye on the growing consumer control, the questions around AI and the excitement of virtual reality applications. The landscape has changed — a lot. For the coming year, trends show a growing emphasis on a shifting local and global identity, the impact of intersectionality, and the real threat of cyber spying.
As we open 2017 are we more connected globally or not? (Shutterstock-Elena Abrazhevich_512893003)
1.Geopolitic Disruption
A few years ago (or maybe just a month or two back?) globalism seemed like an inevitability. It was a fact of life that the world would become more connected, not less. That trade would increase, not stall out. And that individual people would find themselves with more in common with people and cultures across the planet, not less. That outlook, at least as far as 2017 goes, isn’t so clear anymore.
It’s not just Donald Trump’s election that’s signaling a change in the structure of globalism’s future, either. Across Europe, candidates that embrace isolationism and nationalism have found favor with audiences unsure of or unmoved by globalism’s enticements.
At the same time boundaries are being redrawn for nations and states defined by population and business. Global boundaries are shifting as mega-cities and mega-regions define our territories rather than nation states.
What this means for business
Globalism isn’t going away. People still want the conveniences and entertainments that only come by way of modern economies. But with politics at the forefront, a new conversation about what it means to be American and what it means to be a global citizen has begun. That means brands need to be clear on their values – and be unafraid of the consequences of them. It also means that messaging will most likely change.
Protesting intersecting causes and issues (Marcela-flic.kr/p/qpk8vD)
2. Intersectional Futurism
Last year we talked about the growing drumbeat for acknowledgement and acceptance of greater diversity. This year, there is no more quickly rising topic. It is impossible to view any issue, injustice or cause as other than interrelated.
As our global awareness builds, our economies become more intertwined, political trends spread, and media keep us all connected. With all this happening in the world, we are now seeing and experiencing the culture as a whole rather than as separate parts.
Intersectionality is the idea that different social issues overlap and intersect, and that one issue can only be understood in the context of others producing complex results. The notion has been around for some time, emerging in the 60s and 70s, as women of color fought for their rights shining a light on the intersection of civil rights and gender oppression they faced. Looking at issues of today and tomorrow through this lens is what Alexis Madrigal calls Intersectional Futurism.
Women’s health, as one example, is not solely related to gender, but also to class, ability, and race. Environmental degradation affects the poor more than other economic groups. You cannot eradicate poverty without considering how environmentalism impacts their lives. Prison reform can only be solved when you examine the effects of race, geography, and economics. Current issues filling the media related to race, sexism, classism, ableism, heterosexism, xenophobia, transphobia all exist in relation to one another.
What this means for business
At a time when the world and some communities can feel divided, there is an opportunity to focus on the very real points of intersection — not just to talk to multiple groups of people, but to consider what impact your product and your business have more broadly in the community and the culture.
How can we tap into the intersectional issues that draw us together, link us together for understanding and insight? This is an important way to look at the world, but it’s one that often leaves people and organizations struggling with where to start and what to do.
Freelance, gigs and nano-gigs (startupstockphotos-pixabay593378)
3. On-Demand Work
According to the World Economic Forum, the Fourth Industrial Revolution is underway and changing everything we know about life, business and consumerism. The emphasis, they say, will be on talent not capital.
This shift in global economies is already in motion, and can be seen in the changing relationship Americans have with work, whether by choice or by need. Contingent workers are now a reality. Instead of traditional college degrees, ambitious wannabe employees create CVs of their own design with badges, hands-on learning and nano-degrees building their own version of talent.
More and more workers patch together careers of their own making—job sharing, double gigs, freelancing. According to MBO Partners “in the last five years, the number of independent workers in the US has risen 12%”
Regular folks can now outsource a portion of their lives. Use your creativity to make money on Kickstarter, your house to make money on AirBnB, your car to burn a few hours with Uber, then use your friends to make an audience on YouTube and sell product placement on that.
Then add in the Makers who tinker with AI, write the apps to entertain us, buy the 3D printers and create the videos we share.
What this means for business
Acknowledge and embrace the fact that a change is in motion. Give workers the freedom to build their work lives as they see fit. Understand that your potential customer, while probably working often, is no longer locked in a 9-to-5. Strategize now for the technological changes on the horizon.
Many feel lost and left behind (pixabay-pezibear-1543329)
4. Dislocation
Globalization, immigration and technological changes are leaving many behind, creating social and economic disparity, dislocating families and triggering tension that has been building for years. According to Pew “the middle class lost ground in nearly nine-in-ten U.S. metropolitan areas.” The U.S. presidential election blew this and other brewing frustrations wide open, putting populism smack in the mainstream rather than festering on the fringes.
When right and left, or liberal and conservative are no longer adequate descriptions, but combinations of tea party, extremist, moderate, elitist, radical, patriot, nationalist, Pirate Party, Brexit, remain, globalist are the new identities, then there are no outsiders anymore.
What this means for business
Who are we? How is it that we are one but so different? How are we going to live together?
Businesses are challenged to take a stand, keep the peace, or stay silent on an array of issues without offending someone. Everyone feels this stress, from the family dinner table to the shop at the mall.
This is the best time to do strategic and tactical audit:
– Reaffirm your company mission and values and engage employees, shareholders and customers in that commitment.
– Is there a customer audience that doesn’t get attention? Why doesn’t it? Choose your audience carefully and stick to that choice.
– Transparency is the path to trust. How is your transparency quotient?
Innovators are creating the next new things at an accelerated pace (pixabay-skeeze-600982)
5. The Next Big Thing
We’re a nation that was built on ingenuity, discovery, and progress. Entrepreneurs and innovators are creating the next new things at an accelerated and exciting pace, and it raises our expectations for everyday business, too.
Innovation: Geeks everywhere have a shooting star to follow in Elon Musk. He and others are lending real celebrity to science and entrepreneurship, and with it changing space exploration, energy and transportation innovation.
Cognification is the new Smart: Last year I talked about AI and its potential risks. This year I’m seeing not only business solutions, but VPAs and Smart Bots that go way beyond Siri, Cortana, Alexa. KAI is an AI-powered virtual assistant that can be configured to talk directly with customers, weaving easily into their everyday lives. We’ll see “cognitive” as the new key descriptor.
Dark Data: The data generated by all our IoT gadgets and services, not to mention all of the other data being captured by companies, has eclipsed our ability to deal with it. It is a gold mine of information and insights if we only knew how to make use of it.
What this means for business
Data will become multi-directional rather than unidirectional as consumers and citizens contribute what’s needed to make businesses and communities run. An evolving digital mesh of smart machines will connect billions of things into a continuous digital experience. Are you ready for it?
Second hand clothes are ending up in landfills (pixabay-purpura-804760)
6. Life Sustainable
Increasingly business, citizens and consumers understand that to preserve our planet we must use a holistic view in re-evaluating how we live, how we get around, how and what we consume, what a product’s lifespan looks like and more—the quadruple promise of people, planet, profit, and purpose. We can no longer think about our future in singular environmental perspective.
Last year, we talked about the landmark Paris Climate Agreement and the corporate leaders staking strategic claim with bold initiatives. The U.S. role in the climate conversation will likely change with the 2016 election, though, and many are watching. Where will the burden fall?
According to the Edelman Trust Barometer, “8 out of 10 people are still expecting business to solve societal problems” this year the activity is going to be a shared responsibility. Already we are seeing change among consumers and corporations. According to CNBC “Fast Fashion’s rapid growth is starting to slow.” Second hand stores are starting to reject fast fashion items and much of it is ending up in landfills rather than being recycled. Food waste is another area getting lots of attention with recycling and reuse startups taking up the cause.
What this means for business
– Invest now in sustainable practices throughout your business. Don’t forget to tell your employees and customers
– Watch for the pop-up, kickstarter innovations that can jump start your process or give your company a cause to rally around
– Consider ways your business can help us each get closer to net-zero impact
We will continue to debate our need for privacy versus security (nolifebeforecoffee-flic-krpc1utf)
7. Privacy And Security
Privacy and security continue to be critical this year and likely well into the future as we debate the ethical, economic and political tensions between the very real need to be safe and our rights to privacy. The web of leaks and hacks is mindboggling for citizens and marketers alike, and can be plenty creepy. Did the Russians interfere with our election? Edward Snowden claims that David Patreus leaked more intel than he did. Was Hillary reckless with classified documents? What’s more, cyber espionage is being deployed as a 21st century weapon. Regular citizens don’t have the answers but all feel vulnerable to the downside of a hack and worried about how a real nation state attack would play out.
What this means for business
Privacy policies may be a legal and regulatory necessity, but they’re not at the forefront of the public’s mind. Customers want real evidence that you’ll keep us safe and own up to it and fix it when something happens outside of your control.